Irrational Behavior And Thoughts Of Players In Football Betting

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Although mainstream economics constructs its theory based on the assumption that "people are rational", there is also a "bounded rationality" assumption based on psychological research, which believes that people do not achieve rationality in economic activities and often make irrational decisions. Act and hold irrational thoughts and beliefs. Nobel Prize winners in economics Simon (1978) and Kahemann (2002) clarified human beings' bounded rationality and a series of irrational choices made in many uncertain situations.

Near Miss:

Trace error: This means that there are traces to follow, the antecedents can be found, and the possible consequences can be deduced." This is a common irrational thinking among people who participate in gambling. Football is a complex team sport, and the final result is determined by a combination of factors, such as lineup combination, injuries, on-field command, substitutions, spectators, and weather. There are often upset wins, but the average bettor has an irrational belief that they can judge the outcome of the game. They believe that upset wins are caused by accidents and random factors. Therefore, such upsets will not change or weaken the motivation for betting. , but it will increase the motivation to buy. In fact, people can only rely on their own brain experience models to make judgments about the results of football matches, even if they have a lot of data and time. But in fact, experience is not reliable and there are not many repeatable rules to follow. Therefore, It is difficult for people to make precise judgments.

Hindsight, foaming at the mouth

After the results of the game come out, many people will conduct various rational analyses, trying to find out the impact of factors such as strength, formation, on-the-spot command, weather, injuries, etc. on the results. But when none of these factors explain the results, some blame occult factors or conspiracy theories, such as gambling syndicates or geopolitics. These factors may inspire bettors the next time they place a bet, making them think they have discovered some truth or pattern, but they are often wrong. In the book "Thinking, Fast and Slow", Kahemann pointed out that people have two ways of making decisions. When people have enough information, resources, intelligence, time and space, they will adopt a rational and logical decision-making method; however, when these conditions are lacking, players will adopt an intuitive and heuristic way of thinking. With the exception of the intuitions of professionally trained people (such as athletes or surgeons), much of life's intuition is often fallible. Therefore, the inspiration brought by the above hindsight analysis is often wrong.

For big-name stars, just buy their teams, or just the other way around, as the villas are close to the sea.

From a scientific perspective, this is a form of availability or accessibility heuristic thinking. Psychological research shows that players are more likely to remember the first impression or thing that appears (primacy effect), as well as the most recent impression or thing (recency effect). Players use available cues to make decisions, for example if I like a certain big name or star player, then I may think that with him on his team he will definitely win. Others may do the opposite, because they believe the outcome of the game may be rigged by bookmakers, so they buy the opposite so they can win money. This is a self-created rule, but may not apply in certain situations, such as when both teams have big-name stars.

If you lose, bet more and you will always win back in the end.

Prospect theory mentions loss aversion, that is, players feel more strongly about losing money than winning money. Therefore, when players lose money, they feel unbalanced and adopt more aggressive betting strategies to recoup their losses. At the same time, players also place more risky bets when they expect they will lose money. These behaviors stem from emotional factors of loss aversion rather than rational thinking. Such a betting strategy is not sustainable in the long term as the probability of losing money is higher than the probability of winning.

After losing so much in the last game, I will definitely win the next game

The outcome of the next game will not be affected by the results of previous games. This is an unreasonable probability belief. In fact, in the case of choosing one of the two, the probability tends to 50%, which is a rational model, that is, the law of large numbers (it requires a sufficient number of experiments and data to achieve the theoretical probability). However, in reality, it is difficult to satisfy the conditions of the law of large numbers such that the probability of both sides is equal, that is, 50%. For example, if you toss a coin ten times, the probability of getting heads ten times is small, but it is still possible. This probability in the minds of fans is applied in a relatively narrow and relatively small data atmosphere, that is, the law of small numbers. Therefore, the outcome of the next game cannot be predicted based on past wins and losses.

Believe in laws and spells

In sports competitions, there are many so-called laws and curses, such as the rule that the host country will not lose in the opening game, the defending champion cannot escape the fate of being eliminated in the group stage, etc. However, these laws and spells only find weak connections within a limited range of data and are mistaken for certain laws. This kind of thinking and belief belongs to the unreasonable law of small numbers. As more data accumulates, these laws and mantras may prove to be wrong because they are based on very limited sample data.

Conclusion

This article explores the irrational rational beliefs and thinking patterns of players during football matches. First, players are often swayed by preconceptions. For example, players will firmly believe that a team must win or lose. Secondly, players often make attribution errors, blaming a team's success or failure on a single factor while ignoring other important factors. Third, many people believe that the result of the previous game will affect the result of the next game, but this idea is unreasonable. Finally, players will also believe in some laws and spells, but these are only laws of small numbers based on limited data and are not reliable. Based on the above, it is difficult for most players to get rid of these unreasonable beliefs and ways of thinking. This is also a common pattern in many gambling bibles or gambling tips.

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